Economist & Data Scientist

Carlos Ignacio
Navarro

Building measurement where the data doesn't cooperate.

Applied Economics Causal Inference Python · SQL · Stata Tableau Policy Analysis Agentic AI Research Bilingual EN/ES

About Me

I grew up in Rio Bravo, Tamaulipas — across the Rio Grande from Donna, TX, in the heart of the Rio Grande Valley. Growing up on the border meant growing up bilingual, bicultural, and fluent in navigating between worlds. That instinct for context — who the data affects, where people actually live — has shaped every research project I've touched since.

My career traces a deliberate arc from the border outward. I started in cross-border logistics at TRANCASA, then interned with the Economic Policy Institute in Silicon Valley, studying post-recession recovery for low-income families. At the Bush School I received the U.S. Congress–George H.W. Bush Fellowship and delivered a comparative security analysis to U.S. Southern Command. That researcher identity deepened at PERC (Texas A&M), where I built economic indices, co-authored a peer-reviewed study on Medicaid and recidivism, and directed a COVID-19 business impact survey. At Texas 2036 I translated complex data into legislative recommendations on workforce and criminal justice. Since January 2025 I've served as Data Scientist at the Texas Space Commission, engineering the state's first space workforce index.

I bring to big tech a combination that's genuinely rare: rigorous econometric training, production-grade data science skills (Python, SQL, Stata, ML), and a decade of translating ambiguous, high-stakes problems into decisions that moved policy. I work across sectors, communicate fluently to both technical and executive audiences, and carry a bilingual, international perspective built into everything I do. I'm looking for a team where measurement, causal thinking, and real-world impact are taken seriously.

Carlos Ignacio Navarro
Education
Master of International Affairs
Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
U.S. Congress–George H.W. Bush Fellowship recipient
Education
BA in Economics
University of Texas Pan American
Origin
Rio Bravo, Tamaulipas, Mexico
US–Mexico border · Dual citizen
Languages
English (native) · Spanish (native)

Experience

January 2025 – Present
Data Scientist
Texas Space Commission · Austin, TX
  • Engineered the Texas Space Workforce Index — the state's first high-fidelity economic indicator for the commercial space sector — validating 40% workforce growth since 2015 and quantifying a $132K average space wage premium (1.8× the state average).
  • Designed the agency's foundational data pipelines and authored internal governance directives, successfully harmonizing conflicting state security standards (TAC 202) with federal research ethics (Common Rule) to enable compliant survey research.
  • Serves as quantitative lead and trusted advisor to executive leadership and federal partners, translating aerospace supply-chain analysis into actionable investment strategy and legislative testimony.
August 2022 – January 2025
Data Analyst, Strategic Initiatives
Texas 2036 · Austin, TX
  • Applied K-means clustering (Python / Scikit-Learn) to segment state labor markets across thousands of institutions, producing workforce forecasts that reshaped the organization's legislative funding priorities.
  • Led the Texas Energy Scenario Planner project end-to-end, coordinating between research contractors, visualization vendors, and internal stakeholders to deliver a high-visibility public dashboard on time.
  • Co-authored Opening Doors: The State of Higher Education in Texas Prisons (Texas 2036, 2024), a policy report showing a $1.61 return per $1 spent on prison college programs and recommending statewide reforms to expand access.
March 2018 – April 2022
Senior Research Associate
Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University · College Station, TX
  • Co-authored "The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism," published in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (2021) — used Medicaid expansion variation and individual-level NCRP prisoner data to establish causal reductions in violent and public-order recidivism.
  • Built the College Station-Bryan Economic Index from scratch, devising a sales-tax proxy for retail activity when official monthly data was unavailable; the index became a widely-cited regular publication for local business leaders and policymakers.
  • Directed the COVID-19 Business Impact Survey — executed rapid data collection, cleaning, and analysis under crisis timelines to provide situational awareness to municipal leaders during the pandemic.
2016
Transfer Pricing Intern
Texas A&M University School of Law · Fort Worth, TX
  • Analyzed the EU Commission's challenge to the Netherlands–Starbucks Advanced Pricing Agreement using the Transactional Net Margin Method and Orbis / Bureau van Dijk financial data.
  • Co-authored "The Value Chain: A Study of the Coffee Industry," a chapter in A Practical Guide to US Transfer Pricing (LexisNexis), with William Byrnes and Nima Khodakarami.
2013
Research Intern (EARN Fellow)
Working Partnerships USA / Economic Policy Institute · San Jose, CA
  • Collected and analyzed economic indicators for the Life in the Valley Economy biannual report, investigating post-recession recovery for low- and middle-income families in Silicon Valley.
  • Gave public testimony at a San Jose city hall meeting on regional housing conditions; findings contributed to the Economic Prosperity Strategy, prescribing industry-driven vocational training to match employer demand.
Pre-2013
Operations Assistant
TRANCASA (Transportes Canales SA de CV) · Rio Bravo, Tamaulipas, Mexico
  • Developed the company's first Import-Export Procedures manual, documenting the end-to-end cross-border shipment process from client intake to driver return.
  • Served on the internal C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) board, managing annual certification renewals; maintained logistics inventory and traffic data using SICET.

Skills

Languages & Query
Python SQL Stata MATLAB R Gretl
AI & Emerging Tools
Agentic AI LLM Integration AI-Assisted Research Prompt Engineering Claude API
ML & Econometrics
Scikit-Learn Pandas K-Means Clustering Causal Inference Diff-in-Diff Regression Analysis Forecasting Dynamic Factor Models
Data & Visualization
Tableau Cloud Power BI MS Excel DataFerrett Orbis / Bureau van Dijk SICET
Governance & Compliance
IRB & Research Ethics Data Privacy (PII/SPI) TX-RAMP TAC 202 Common Rule (45 CFR 46) Policy Drafting
Domain Expertise
Labor Economics Criminal Justice Economics Space Economy Transfer Pricing Development Economics Public Policy Analysis Game Theory
Communication & Leadership
Bilingual (EN/ES) Technical Writing Stakeholder Management Legislative Testimony Cross-functional Collaboration LLM Integration

The Story in Data

Carlos Ignacio Navarro
Research economist · Data scientist · AI-augmented
The story in data
Career journey
Rio Bravo, MX
2010
Origin · logistics & trade ops
Edinburg, TX
2009–2015
UTPA · BA Econ, cum Laude
San Jose, CA
2013
EPI · Silicon Valley policy research
College Station, TX
2015–2022
Bush School MIA · Fellowship · PERC
Fort Worth, TX
2016
TAMU Law · transfer pricing
Austin, TX
2022–now
Texas 2036 · Space Commission
By the numbers
13+
years of research experience
40+
publications, reports & studies
6
distinct sectors worked in
2
countries of citizenship
1
peer-reviewed journal (JPAM)
6
professional certifications
Domains & certifications
Applied economics Public policy Data science Agentic AI research Causal inference Legislative analysis Data governance International affairs
Certifications
Space Policy AI & ML · UT McCombs Python Foundations UX Research Problem Solving Agentic AI Foundations: Business Risks and Applications · Harvard Online
Dual citizen · US & Mexico · U.S. Congress–George H.W. Bush Fellowship recipient
EN ES JA

Publications

Independent Research · New
More service jobs, less technical AI use — a subnational look
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · August 2026 · Read on this site →
Pairs Anthropic's Economic Index with OECD regional employment statistics across 279 regions in 35 countries. Within countries, regions with more service employment show a lower share of AI usage going to technical work — the reverse of the intuitive mapping from industry mix to technical AI use. Survives country fixed effects, 35 leave-one-country-out refits, a wild cluster bootstrap, an independent replication in Stata, and a second usage measure built from a different classification scheme.
Peer-Reviewed
The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism
Erkmen G. Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos I. Navarro, Han Yu · Journal of Policy Analysis and Management · 2021
Exploits variation in state Medicaid expansion decisions — and individual-level National Corrections Reporting Program data — to establish that access to public health insurance causally reduces recidivism among offenders convicted of violent and public-order crimes, driven by increased criminal-justice referrals to addiction treatment.
Book Chapter
The Value Chain: A Study of the Coffee Industry
William H. Byrnes, Nima Khodakarami, Carlos Navarro Perez · A Practical Guide to US Transfer Pricing, LexisNexis
A transfer pricing case study applying the Transactional Net Margin Method to a hypothetical specialty coffee roaster in Europe, tracing the full supply and value chain from cultivation to consumer and identifying comparable parties using Orbis financial data.
Policy Report
Opening Doors: The State of Higher Education in Texas Prisons
Luis Soberon & Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · November 2024
Finds that participation in prison college programs reduces recidivism by up to 41.5% and yields a $1.61 return per $1 spent; recommends governance reforms, expanded community college access, and integrated data systems to scale higher education across TDCJ facilities.
Working Paper
Methodology for Constructing an Economic Index for the College Station-Bryan MSA
Dennis W. Jansen, Carlos I. Navarro, Andrew J. Rettenmaier, Tatevik Sekhposyan · Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University · October 2018
Presents the dynamic factor model methodology and data sources used to build a monthly coincident business-cycle index for the College Station-Bryan metropolitan area, using sales-tax collections as a proxy for retail activity when official monthly GDP data is unavailable.
Policy Report
Pandemic Misery Index: Economic and Health Implications of COVID-19
Erkmen G. Aslim & Carlos I. Navarro · Seidman Business Review, Vol. 27, Issue 1 · Winter 2021
Adapts the Pandemic Misery Index — combining unemployment rates with COVID-19 deaths per 10,000 — to Michigan MSAs, finding wide regional variation (PMI range: 11.82–26.09) and identifying policy effectiveness in managing simultaneous economic and public health burdens.
Blog Post
Aerospace Employment Remains on Ascent Post Pandemic
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · August 2023
Documents Texas aerospace industry employment reaching an all-time high of 154,918 jobs by end of 2022, with Texans holding roughly one in ten space industry jobs nationwide as the sector recovers and the Legislature commits $350M to the new Texas Space Commission.
Blog Post
Data: Texas Draws Richer Individuals from Other States
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · September 2023
Uses IRS address-change data across Commuting Zones to show that out-of-state movers to Texas have higher average incomes than within-state movers, with the largest flows suggesting Texas is an especially attractive destination for wealthy households.
Blog Post
Teacher Wages and Projected Growth: What to Know
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · April 2023
Draws on Texas Workforce Commission occupational projections to show that four of the ten fastest-growing bachelor's-degree occupations in Texas are in teaching — yet all four rank among the lowest-paid in that same cohort.
Blog Post
Jobs and Wages: Projections from Now Until 2030
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · February 2023
Examines TWC projections showing 18.3% Texas employment growth through 2030 — more than double the national rate — while highlighting a persistent $4,000 average wage gap relative to the US and a decade-long concentration of growth in low-wage jobs.
Blog Post
TX's Labor Market and the Price of Recovery: Strategic Framework
Carlos Ignacio Navarro · Texas 2036 · December 2022
Analyzes the tightest Texas labor market in a decade — unemployment fell from a 12.6% pandemic peak to 4% by September 2022 — examining the economic cost of recovery and the structural dynamics behind persistently more job openings than unemployed workers.

Contact

Open to roles in data science, applied economics, and policy analytics — especially at organizations working at scale. Feel free to reach out.